Daggett’s Challenge: Switch Voters Who Call for Change Yet Support Major Party Candidates

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – While a large majority of New Jersey voters wants an alternative to the two-party system, independent gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett has yet to capitalize on this discontent, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll.

The poll finds that only 27 percent of likely voters say the current two-party system works well. Given a choice, 37 percent would prefer more than two strong parties while another 32 percent believe candidates should run without party labels at all. Despite nearly 70 percent support for an alternative to Democrats and Republicans, just one-in-five likely voters supports Daggett. Results are from a statewide Rutgers-Eagleton Poll of 583 likely voters conducted October 15-20. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent.

Only 17 percent of voters who think the two-party system works well support Daggett, compared to 46 percent for Democrat incumbent Jon Corzine and 34 percent for Republican Chris Christie. But even among those who say New Jersey needs more than two strong parties, Daggett wins only 25 percent, while the major party candidates win about one-third each. Finally, voters who think candidates should not run under party labels also fail to support Daggett. He wins 20 percent of these voters, compared to Christie’s 40 percent and Corzine’s 36 percent.

"It is striking how many New Jersey voters say they want an alterative, yet how unwilling they are to vote for that alternative when available,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers. “Even though Daggett is running a credible campaign, he is failing to attract most disaffected voters. Much of this is because many voters still know little about Daggett, but the numbers also are driven by history: independents don’t win in New Jersey and voters know that.”

Impressions of Daggett

Fewer than half New Jersey’s likely voters (46 percent) have formed an impression of Daggett, although among those who have, more than twice as many (31 percent) see him favorably as unfavorably (15 percent). In contrast, both Corzine and Christie are seen as more negative than positive.

“Daggett’s challenge with only a week to go is to make inroads with those who know little about him,” said Redlawsk. “But given his lack of funding and local organization, this will be difficult at best.”

The poll shows Daggett does do well among those who view him favorably – he wins 53 percent of these likely voters. But this lags both Corzine, who wins 81 percent of those who view him favorably, and Christie, who wins 74 percent of his favorable voters.

“Interestingly, at 31 percent favorable, Daggett is viewed positively by nearly as many voters as Christie (39 percent favorable) and Corzine (40 percent favorable),” said Redlawsk. “But because he is winning only half of those who like him, he cannot compete with the two major party candidates, who have managed to nail down their supporters.”

Daggett’s Tax Plan

Daggett drew media attention with his release of a detailed tax plan before the Oct. 1 debate. But two weeks before the election, the poll showed that only 23 percent of likely voters said they had heard “a lot” about Daggett’s plan, while 25 percent said they had heard “nothing at all” about the plan. Daggett’s supporters were no more likely to have heard a lot about the plan than Corzine or Christie supporters, although they were significantly less likely to have heard nothing at all.

“Awareness of Daggett’s tax plan is another indicator of how hard it is for an independent candidate with much less money to get his message across,” said Redlawsk, adding that among voters who have heard a lot about the plan, Daggett, at 22 percent, still trailed Christie and Corzine at 40 percent and 32 percent, respectively, among likely supporters

Daggett as the “Not Christie/Corzine” Candidate

The Rutgers-Eagleton poll shows that nearly one-quarter of likely voters rate both Christie and Corzine unfavorably. These should be voters ripe for the taking by Daggett, Redlawsk said, however, Daggett wins only 41 percent of these voters, compared to 25 percent for Christie and 22 percent for Corzine. One possible reason: voters’ uncertainty about the candidate best equipped to solve what they see as New Jersey’s most important problem.

While 69 percent of Daggett voters think he will do the best job, Christie (72 percent) and Corzine (73 percent) fare better with their likely voters, Redlawsk said. And among those who view Daggett favorably, whether voting for him or not, only 48 percent believe he will do the best job. Corzine and Christie do much better with those who view them favorably. Of those who rate Corzine favorably, 66 percent say he will do the best job, while 63 percent of those favorable to Christie say the same about him.

Even more surprising, only 33 percent of those who view both Corzine and Christie unfavorably think Daggett will do the best job on their more important problem. Nearly 40 percent of this group simply doesn’t think any of the candidates can solve the state’s important problems.

“Most voters who dislike both major party candidates cannot bring themselves to vote for Daggett – at least not yet,” said Redlawsk. “These voters, who could be key to a Daggett surprise, seem instead to be defeatist, suggesting that New Jersey’s problems cannot be solved by any of the candidates.”

Daggett and the Two-Party System

One consequence of both the lack of awareness of Daggett and the lack of confidence that he can solve the state’s problems is that he does no better among those who dislike the two- party system than he does among those who like it. Most New Jerseyans, even those who identify with one of the two major parties, say they prefer something other than the two-party system. Only 36 percent of self-identified Democrats and 27 percent of Republicans say the current system works well. But most of these voters still would vote for their own party’s candidate, with 71 percent of Democrats and 76 percent of Republicans supporting their party, while only 15 percent of partisans support Daggett.

Even among independents, Daggett lags overall, and among those who want alternatives to the two-party system. Independents who like the system – a very small group representing only 7 percent of the sample – give a very small nod to Daggett, 33 percent to 28 percent for both Christie and Corzine. Independents who say they want alternatives (28 percent of all likely voters) are actually more likely to support Christie, 36 percent to 30 percent for Daggett and 27 percent for Corzine.