Recent low prices spur more travel, spending

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – As state lawmakers struggle to return the virtually bankrupt Transportation Trust Fund to solvency, 54 percent of New Jerseyans continue to oppose a gas tax increase while 42 show support, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Two versions of the question were put to residents, with results virtually unchanged since December 2014.

However, many of the strongest opponents – especially Republicans and men – have a change of heart upon learning the state’s gas tax is the nation’s third lowest and has not been raised in decades. Given that context, 44 percent of Republicans and 47 percent of men support a hike. Without context, 29 percent of Republicans and 36 percent of men favor an increase.

“Across all residents, adding context raises support from 39 percent to only 44 percent,” said David Redlawsk, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling and professor of political science at Rutgers University. “But, that the added information has a positive effect on the strongest opponents might provide opportunity for political leaders trying to solve the problem of paying for transportation infrastructure maintenance. A majority remains opposed, but opposition might be softer than it seems if enough context is provided.”

gas pump

While prices at the pump have recently ticked up after months of decline, New Jerseyans seem to be capitalizing on the savings; half say they have been more likely to travel by car for a weekend getaway or vacation. Also, 52 percent of respondents say they have been able to spend household money elsewhere with savings at the pump.

Unsurprisingly, lower gas prices have not had a positive effect on mass transit use or carpooling. Almost 50 percent of those polled say their mass transit use has not changed and 41 percent say it actually has declined. As for carpooling, while 43 percent say they are just as likely to carpool now, another 39 percent say they have been less likely to do so given cheaper gas. But New Jerseyans say that if the gas tax were raised, they would change some of these behaviors. Just over 20 percent would be more likely to use mass transit or carpool, and 35 percent would cut back on car trips. Forty percent would be less likely to spend household money on other things.

Results are from a statewide poll of 813 residents contacted by live callers on both landlines and cell phones from Feb. 3-10, 2015, with a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points. Interviews were done in both English and, when requested, Spanish.

Democrats stronger supporters of a hike

While less than a majority of New Jerseyans support a gas tax increase, some groups are stronger opponents. Across both versions of the question, Republicans are squarely against an increase, 62 percent to 36 percent. Among independents, 54 percent oppose a hike compared with 41 percent in favor. As with most tax issues, Democrats show more support, with 47 percent in favor and 47 percent opposed.

Transportation modes also influence support. Those less likely to use mass transit or carpool given lower gas prices are more likely to oppose a hike. Daily (or near-daily) drivers also are more likely to oppose paying more: 56 percent, compared with 47 percent of less frequent motorists.

Support for an increased gas tax grows with age and income; a majority of senior citizens (51 percent) and those with household incomes of $150,000 or more (56 percent) favor a higher tax. Fifty-one percent of liberals also support a higher tax. No other major demographic groups show majority support.

To read the entire poll, click here.


EDITOR’S NOTE: ATTENTION POLITICAL, ASSIGNMENT EDITORS, Poll Director David Redlawsk may be contacted at 319-400-1134 (cell), 848-932-8504 (office), or redlawsk@rutgers.edu until 11 p.m. Poll manager Ashley Koning may be contacted at 908-872-1186 or akoning@rutgers.edu. Visit our blog at http://eagletonpollblog.wordpress.com for additional commentary. Follow the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/RutgersEagletonPoll and Twitter @EagletonPoll.